- Editor's Note
In August 2008, Russia and Georgia fought a brief war whose repercussions are still being felt today and whose implications, regional and global, are still uncertain. Did the conflict presage a new Cold War, a bid by Russia to regain its superpower status, challenge the United States around the world, and eventually recover territories relinquished during the Soviet collapse? Or are Moscow's aims are much less ambitious—merely to reassert its influence and protect its interests in its "near abroad", without implying any territorial designs or grand strategic goals? Our authors consider questions such as the future of relations between Washington and Moscow, the nature of Russia's political orientation and strategic ambitions under Medvedev and Putin, whether NATO ought to or indeed can now expand to include Ukraine and Georgia, and how events will unfold in the latter two countries.
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- The Russia–Georgia War: Causes and Consequences
Was Georgia provoked by Russia into launching its attack on South Ossetia, or was its assault the outcome of a long-premeditated plan? Did US support for Mikheil Saakashvili encourage the Georgian president to believe it was in his interests to strike first? Did Russia fall into a trap of Washington’s making in responding so vigorously to Georgia’s actions? These questions are examined, and some suggestions are made as to how the West might repair its relations with Russia.
Nicolai N. Petro
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- Abkhazia, Georgia, and the Crisis of August 2008: Roots and Lessons
Much of the Western media coverage of the Russia–Georgia war was lazy and ill-informed, relying on “blame-Russia-first” prejudices held over from the Cold War. Sorely lacking was any knowledge of the issues that have plagued Georgia’s relations with both South Ossetia and Abkhazia for decades (not to say centuries) and which led to wars in both regions as the Soviet Union collapsed. An effort is made to remedy this deficiency, particularly with regard to Abkhazia.
George Hewitt
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- East or West? Ukraine’s Quandary
Russia’s use of military force against Georgia had alarming implications for another West-leaning former Soviet republic—Ukraine. An assessment is made of the war’s impact on Kiev's relations with Moscow, on Ukraine’s domestic political stability and cohesion, and on the country’s aspirations to join the European Union and NATO.
Tor Bukkvoll
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- Revisionist Russia
Russia today is very far from being the chaotic post-Soviet entity it was in the 1990s. Rather, it is an increasingly self-confident “revisionist” state, one that means to re-establish a zone of political and economic influence that extends across former Soviet territory and to become again a central player in international politics. The Russian leadership’s determination to challenge the geopolitical status quo will force the Obama administration to balance resolute defence of US interests where necessary with a pragmatic focus on partnership where possible.
Ian Bremmer
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- Courting the Bear: A New Era for Russian–Western Relations
The European Union is returning to its traditional role of mediator between Washington and Moscow after a period of impotence following its expansion into eastern Europe, which left it as junior partner to the United States because of the new EU members’ anti-Russian stance. In this context, the Russian proposal for a new European security structure could be a midwife to the eventual demise of NATO, which has long outlived its Cold War raison d’etre. Part of Russia’s current high profile in global affairs is due to the increased respect it enjoys in the Muslim world, despite the tragedy of Chechnya.
Eric Walberg
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- A ‘Reset’ for Relations?: Understanding Russian Grievances
Numerous factors have worked to disillusion Russians profoundly about the United States and to alter dramatically their outlook on the West. Hopes for improved ties must recognise not only the depth of Russians’ resentment, but also the length of their steady alienation—twenty years of unfulfilled (or broken) promises and searing disappointment. This experience has hardened a worldview, a core identity of their society and state as an actor in international affairs, that is sharply at odds with the American-led West. The first task, therefore, for those who would “reset” Russian–American relations is to understand the evolution of that worldview, beginning not with the recent Bush presidency but that of Bill Clinton and, before it, the first Bush administration.
Robert D. English
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- Blaming Moscow: The Power of the Anti-Russia Lobby
An examination of the origins, composition and influence of the anti-Russia lobby in the United States. The Georgia war of August 2008 was seized on by the lobby to bolster its claim that Russia is a resurgent, unpredictable, potentially dangerous power that is prone to bullying its neighbours. Although the lobby failed to prevent a “reset” of relations between Washington and Moscow, it has done much to obstruct the co-operation warranted by the significant convergence of US and Russian interests in the Caucasus.
Andrei P. Tsygankov
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- NATO: The End of the Permanent Alliance
Flush with their triumph in the Cold War, US and other Western leaders hailed NATO as a “permanent alliance”, refusing to disband the organisation, seeking to add new members, and allowing it to undertake non-defensive military operations outside western Europe. This perpetuation and extension of NATO’s mission have landed the alliance in severe difficulties, highlighted by the 2008 Georgia war, which cruelly exposed the failure of NATO’s grasp to match its reach.
Stanley Kober
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- Western Values as Power Politics: The Struggle for Mastery in Eurasia
“Democracy promotion” was a central aspect of the Bush administration’s foreign-policy agenda. Moscow, however, viewed it as geopolitical tool for extending Western power and influence into Russia’s near abroad. After the Rose Revolution, Washington ignored Tbilisi’s democratic failings and vigorously urged NATO entry for Georgia. This setting aside of the usual conditions for alliance membership has eroded the credibility of the NATO enlargement process. The Georgia war is the starkest expression of Russia’s determination to resist what it regards as a Western attempt at containment and encirclement.
Alexander Cooley
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- Russia’s Demographic Crisis: The Threat to ‘Sovereign Democracy’
Russia faces a severe demographic crisis, with rising death rates, falling birth rates and reduced life expectancy. The demographic crisis poses a key strategic threat to the very existence of the state and its guiding ideology, “sovereign democracy”. The ability of the Kremlin to cope with the crisis will become a fundamental indicator of its capacity to perform, legitimising or invalidating domestically and abroad the elite’s continuity in power.
Graeme P. Herd and Grace Allen
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- Analysis
Pakistan: Anatomy of a Crisis
A review of the situation in Pakistan, which is in turmoil as a result of the extension to its territory of the US military campaign in neighbouring Afghanistan. The chief Islamist militant groups operating in Pakistan—including the Pakistani Taliban—are profiled, and the mixed motives of Pakistan’s powerful Army in confronting the extremists are described. The wisdom of President Barack Obama’s “Af–Pak” strategy is assessed, and some suggestions are made as to how Pakistan might best counter the instability that besets it.
Varun Vira
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- Book Review
Holy and Contested City
Tamar Mayer and Suleiman Ali Mourad, eds., "Jerusalem: Idea and Reality"
John Quigley
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